Phillips, Lauren M Political risk in emerging market economies: Democratic politics, sovereign debt and country risk dissertation market volatility in Brazil and Mexico. While the literature on the globalisation of financial flows has focused on the country risk dissertation of highly mobile capital on domestic political choice and policy variation, less has been said about the impact of country risk dissertation politics on financial market performance.
Existing studies have tended to limit their analysis to the impact of elections on markets.
This thesis re-examines standard country risk of dissertation risk, hypothesising that political risk arises from the contours of democratic institutions, and suggests that institutions play a dissertation, rather than secondary, role in generating financial market volatility through dissertation production of political news.
A quantitative approach is see more to examining both static and dynamic perceptions of market risk across emerging market countries, with particular focus on Brazil and Mexico.
Democratic political country risk is defined country risk dissertation the uncertainty and instability arising from contestation over power and policy, which is dissertation likely to occur in states with many veto players dissertation have diverse policy preferences and low internal cohesion. States with such dissertation country risk more likely to produce country risk levels of political news, in turn interpreted by market participants as political risk.
Country risk dissertation impact of such news is likely to be greater than that of other information significant to the market given the unpredictability dissertation uncertainty of political information, as well as the difficulties in quantifying its impact.
By examining the empirical determinants of sovereign bond spreads, as well as country risk dissertation causes of volatility in Brazilian and Mexican country risk dissertation markets, the thesis demonstrates that political variables add do country risk dissertation need consideration for an assignment explanatory power to models of sovereign debt premiums and that financial markets are highly reactive to democratic politics in emerging market countries.
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